Prediction markets, measured

Who actually makes money in prediction markets, measured.

A robot reads every bracket of Kalshi's weather ladders every hour, and a finder reads Polymarket's public fills every week; this is what they measured, with sources and timestamps.

Independent. Not Kalshi, and not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Kalshi or Polymarket. Measurements, not financial advice.

Reading the robot's last pass… Kalshi temperature ladders · hourly

Ladders open—brackets read this pass Ruled out by the station's reading—graded on Kalshi's own result Queue at 1c, median—Yes asks resting on a ruled-out bracketC-002 · open · not the grade Same-day favourite, all time—a contract, at the ask plus the feeC-001 · open · not the grade The price, 24 h before the close—Brier score against an even split Game markets open—Kalshi game markets, read hourly

EVERY BRACKET · EVERY HOUR Reading the last pass…

Hypothetical results · the same-day favouriteThese results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

All the numbers The live board

The menu, with a figure from each page

Where to go

Markets What the markets show now

Board— Games— Whale finder—

Hypothetical results · the scorecard's weekly figure in the menu aboveThese results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

The pieces

Decoded from the fills. Read off the tape.

Each piece takes a claim people repeat about these markets and tests it against the venue's own record, with the method at the end.

Piece 05 · Kalshi weather · the long shots

Long shots win, just not as often as their price says

3,594 Kalshi brackets priced a day before the close, every one settled
From 10¢ up the price was right. At 2–10¢, 64¢ back per dollar of price
One winner in 18 was a long shot, and the ladder's extra 3¢ sits there

published 2026-10-05 · every figure computed from the desk's reads

Piece 04 · Kalshi weather · the latency study

The weather was in the price before it was published

217 brackets ruled out by the station's own reading, each one watched
Every one was already a penny when the reading reached the public feed
No window and no stale money: a faster poller has nothing to beat

published 2026-10-03 · every figure computed from the watches

Piece 03 · Polymarket weather · the whole table

The whales are real. A minute late, the edge is gone

1.33M fills, 9,898 wallets, 1,690 that clear the bar
They make +0.72c a share. A copier 60s behind makes −0.07c
The edge is a clock, not a stock pick — and which profile survives

published 2026-09-26 · every figure computed from the fills

Piece 02 · Kalshi weather · the queue

Who collects the cent on a dead contract

3.1 million contracts traded on brackets the day had ruled out
Almost all at a cent: $608 a day for whoever is first in line
The queue, measured: 43,843 contracts ahead of a new ask

published 2026-09-17 · the robot keeps measuring the queue on the board

Hypothetical results · the copier (piece 03) and the $608 a day (piece 02)These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

All pieces

One email per piece, nothing else. No brief, no alerts, no memberships.

Measurements, not financial advice. Nothing here is investment or trading advice either. Mispricd is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Kalshi or Polymarket. Figures are computed from public exchange data and shown with sources and timestamps; verify independently. Prediction-market trading carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction.

About the desk · Sources on every claim · We never tell you what to bet · We grade ourselves first

The opening

Everyone repeats who wins in these markets. Almost nobody reads the tape.

The problem

The stories that circulate about prediction markets, the quiet whale, the boring strategy that prints, the edge that anyone could farm, are told from leaderboards and screenshots. The fills, the order books and the trade tapes that would confirm or kill them are public, and they go unread.

What the desk does

A robot with no opinion reads every ladder every hour and writes down what was there. A finder pulls every weather wallet's fills each week, resolves every market, scores and profiles them, and measures what copying each one would have been worth. We read the exchange's own tape from the moment a contract is decided to the close. The price is scored week by week, and our calls are posted with a date and graded when it arrives, misses left up.

How it is done

Built like a desk, not a tip line.

Sources on every claim

fills · tape · order book · observation · settlement · time

Every figure names the endpoint it came from and the moment it was read. The code that computed it runs under tests, and the method sets out every rule and every database view behind this page, with a dated list of corrections.

We never tell you what to bet

descriptive, not prescriptive

You get the measurement and the receipts. Most of what we find is that an edge belongs to someone else, a market maker's queue or a bot's observation feed, and we say so.

We grade ourselves first

dated call · rule · probability · result

The desk this site began as lost to the market's price and published the loss. The calls page keeps that habit: a call is never edited after it is posted, and an ambiguous rule is graded against us.

This site began as a forecast desk that lost to the price, in public: the record is on the receipts page.